Demand forecasting
Why the distributor version is different
A brand forecasts demand for its own products and plans its own output. A distributor forecasts demand for a catalogue it did not create, across hundreds of suppliers and thousands of trade customers, where a single large customer can swing the numbers for a line in a week. The shape of the problem is simply different.
The balance it manages
Every forecast sits between two costs. Hold too much and cash is tied up in stock that ages; hold too little and you stock out when a customer needs you. The aim is not a perfect number, which does not exist, but a sensible balance that respects lead times and cash.
Where AI fits, and where it does not
AI is good at the pattern work: reading history across many lines, flagging stock drifting below cover or slow movers quietly tying up cash, and proposing reorder points. The buying judgement, backing a supplier, committing to a position, reading the trade, stays with a person.
Frequently asked questions
What is demand forecasting?
Demand forecasting is estimating future sales for each product so you can buy and hold the right amount of stock, early enough to meet lead times without tying up cash in lines that will not move.
Why is demand forecasting harder for distributors?
A distributor forecasts demand for thousands of SKUs it did not create, across many suppliers and trade customers, often with lumpy ordering and varying lead times. That is a different problem from a brand forecasting its own production.
How does AI help with demand forecasting?
It can spot patterns across many lines and customers, flag stock drifting below cover or slow movers tying up cash, and propose reorder points, leaving the buying judgement to a person who knows the suppliers and the trade.
What is the cost of a bad forecast?
Two-sided: forecast too high and cash sits in stock that ages on the shelf; forecast too low and you disappoint customers with stockouts at the worst moment. Good forecasting manages the balance rather than chasing a perfect number.
See it running on a real wholesale P&L
Thirty minutes with a founder. Bring your three most painful manual processes.